As ridiculous and infuriating his ideas and statements have been it has to be said that Donald Trump’s presidential campaign so far has been very impressive. When he ran in the 2012 primaries I, like many others laughed off his chances as his whole campaign seemed to revolve around the public absence of President Obama’s birth certificate, questioning whether the Commander in Chief was born in the US – later Obama went on to present his birth certificate to the public, evaporating any shred of a chance Trump may have had in 2012. I also laughed last year when I found out the tycoon was running again, I even announced “If Trump becomes US President I will run naked through the streets of Granada” to my wife and parents upon being asked if I think he has a chance. I was not alone in thinking Trump was a joke, most people who analyse politics will tell you they felt the same at the time. Taking all of this into account as I write “the Donald” is about to wrap up the Republican nomination and looks set to be going into a battle at the General Election with Hilary Clinton.
(source: Google)
To make this journey from laughing stock by the media, political elite, and armchair analysts like myself to becoming a realistic contender for the White House is an incredible feat. So how has he done it? Not to my approval but he has done it mainly with controversy and making unrealistic and preposterous pledges to Republicans – making outrageous anti-immigrant, and anti-Muslim statements has not only got him free, extensive media coverage, but has also played on the fears of many Republican voters and has allowed him to mop up state-after-state in the primary race. His tone has also been central to his success – he has consistently managed to show himself as “anti-establishment¨ and claims to be the voice of ordinary Americans outside of the DC bubble, for which he has been helped by the political elites negligence in addressing honest concerns many people have about the issues he raises. Further to this, though his success in the world of business is questionable, he is generally perceived as a successful business leader, and this has given him legitimacy somewhat to talk about the economy – under this guise he can put across that he knows more about the workings of business in reality than DC career-politicians who seemingly do not have actual real-life experience for the most part. He’s also had unintentional help from the Republican party; first they should have got behind John Kasich from the beginning, and second the idea that has emerged in the last few weeks that they could block him winning the nomination at a national convention has only helped his cause – fueling his ability to show himself as the anti-establishment candidate.
So what next for Trump? Well I think any attempt to block his nomination now by the Republican party would be madness on their part – Trump is clearly going to win the most delegates and if a national convention gives the nomination to Cruz or Kasich then the GOP would be making a statement that they are ignorant to more than 50% of their members, which would be suicide for them as a party. Added to that comes the opportunity for the Democrat candidate (most likely Hilary) and the media to question the legitimacy of a Cruz/Kasich presidential bid as less than 50% of their party members have backed them. In addition, if they block Trump he will almost certainly stand as an independent and thus take millions of votes with him, killing any chance of a Republican return to the White House by splitting the conservative/rightist vote.
In terms of Trump’s campaigning himself – I expect him to tone it down now like we saw in his speech last night in New York. He needs to step away from the controversy now to appeal to the centre ground of the US electorate, so I expect more guarded and politically correct speech from him in the coming months. This alone will not be enough for him to win the White House, however what could help him and play a pivotal role is the reaction of Bernie Sanders supporters to the now probable defeat of the democratic-socialist candidate in the Democrat primary.
Of course Sanders voters will not suddenly swing to Trump, however they may not vote for Hilary in November and this could ultimately cost the Democrats the White House. The campaign between Sanders and Clinton has been ugly and their put downs of one another will not be helpful in the General Election campaign – Sanders now needs to tone down the attacks on Hilary, and when he does finally concede he needs to endorse her nomination. That said even with a glowing endorsement from Bernie himself, it may prove difficult to convince his supporters to get behind Hilary, and could inadvertently hand the keys to the White House to Trump, which six month ago was an unimaginable scenario.
I hope for many reasons it is not the case that we get President Trump in November as I believe it could be disastrous for the United States, especially on the international stage. However, there is a genuine possibility it could happen, and with a combination of luck and impressive campaigning Trump now finds himself on the brink of entering a General Election dual with Hilary Clinton – where he has a chance. Let’s pray for the US, the world, and especially the people of Granada the unthinkable doesn’t happen!
(The Alhambra, Granada)
Savio 